A common phrase heard from experienced football bettors is: 'I don't bet teams, I bet numbers.'
Picking the winning team in a football game isn't easy. It's even more difficult to place a winning wager on a game that involves a point spread or total.
The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time. One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. Sports betting would be easy — or maybe just easier — if all that was required was to correctly pick the winning team. Gambling institutions, sportsbooks and bookies fall back on point spreads to make the process a little more difficult and to create the ultimate wagering challenge. FootballLOCKS.com has a different system for making NFL betting picks. We use our innovative Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas NFL odds & NFL point spreads to seek indications in the weekly NFL line as to which teams Las Vegas sports odds makers may think have an edge to cover the spread.
Bettors look for key numbers. These numbers in football betting (and to a lesser extent basketball) are the most common margin of victory of the final score or the point totals. These key numbers are accessible using years of final score data that can be found fairly easily online, as you'll see shortly.
When betting on NFL games there are two specific key numbers that bettors keep an eye on. These two specific margins of victory occur much more often than any others. The most frequent margin of victory in both college and pro football is 3 points. The second most frequent margin of victory is 7 points.
These are key numbers for both sportsbook operators and bettors. In this article we'll look at the two key numbers in football for betting full game point spreads since this is the most popular type of wager. We'll also take a look half points, buying points to avoid a key number, if there are certain key numbers for totals, and the possibility of the key numbers becoming obsolete someday.
NFL margin of victory
The margin of victory is the number of points a team wins by. The margin of victory may mean something different to football teams than bettors. Teams might be proud of winning by a lot of points. They can keep pushing the score up or lay off as the game comes to a close.
The losing team could take offense to how they were beaten and seek retribution next time they play. Likewise, they could just see the loss as a bad day at the office. This is one possible short term effect of the margin of victory in a football game. Bettors could use this emotion as part of their handicapping a football game.
The margin of victory for football games is useful for sportsbooks in setting a point spread. Bookmakers and bettors both use this long term data and possible short term implications. At the same time, football bettors use the information when handicapping a game and placing a wager.
Gambling Spread Nfl Draft
There is so much data — good and bad — available today that it's easy to get lost in the information. Key numbers are one data point that is always useful for placing a wager.
Betting the point spread
Moneyline wagers are relatively simple. Just pick a team and the wager will either win or lose. Point spreads are a different monster. Sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game.
A good point spread should attract bettors on both sides of a game. While sportsbooks don't necessarily want equal money on both sides, they don't want the money entirely on one side for every football game. This puts the book at risk of major losses.
Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. You'll often the line on a football game stay at 3 or 7 for longer than other point spreads. Sportsbooks will add vigorish (vig) as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number.
Casino lac leamy buffet restaurant. During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from -100 to -120 then to -130 before moving to either 2.5 or 3.5. The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number.
If bettors place wagers with a higher vig, the casino won't lose as much if the final score lands on the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager.
What are the key numbers?
The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds, the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around 14.5%.
The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from 2006 through Week 1 of the 2018 season finished with a 7 point margin 9.2% of the time. This large sample size covers a total of 3,220 games.
During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was 23.7%. That's a lot of games ending on those key numbers, and that's why they are so important when wagering on football.
For a better comparison here's the probabilty for every margin of victory from 0 points to 21 points in NFL games since 2006 from Wizard of Odds.
0 = 0.2%
1 = 3.7%
2 = 3.8%
3 = 14.5%
4 = 5.2%
5 = 3.4%
6 = 6.2%
7 = 9.2%
8 = 3.6%
9 = 1.7%
10 = 5.6%
11 = 2.5%
12 = 1.5%
13 = 2.9%
14 = 4.8%
15 = 1.5%
16 = 2.1%
17 = 3.1%
18 = 2.3%
19 = 1.1%
20 = 2.4%
21 = 3.2%
22 and higher = 15.7%
Spread Odds Nfl
Understanding why these are key numbers isn't difficult but it's important. Since more football scores are worth 3 points or 7 points (6 points for a touchdown plus 1 for an extra point) it's easy to see why the margin of victory falls at each of these numbers.
The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different.
Keep an eye on the hook
A 'hook' is a slang term for a half-point. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory.
The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2.5 and 3.5. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6.5 and 7.5.
Since nearly 25% of games end with a margin of victory of 3 or 7, finding a point spread just off that number could be the difference between placing a winning bet with the hook or getting a push with the flat number.
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Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game. If a bettor can't find a preferred half point spread, they may choose to buy points. Depending on the sportsbook a half point will add another 10% to the vig. For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2.5 or 3.5 will change the odds from -110 to -120.
A winning wager on a 3-point spread at -110 would pay $100 for every $110 wagered. Buying a half point would mean that the bettor will have to wager $120 to win that same $100. It's not much on a single wager but it adds up over time.
Key numbers in the future
NFL rules change every season. One relatively new rule that is already starting to affect the key numbers is the extra-point distance. Kicking and extra points used to take place with the ball starting at the two yard line. This was almost a guaranteed point for NFL teams.
Since 2015, NFL extra points begin at the 15 yard line. The pseudo 33-yard field goals are no longer thought of as a guarantee. This rule is already changing the game. In the past couple of years, more coaches are going for two-point conversions instead of attempting an extra point.
This three year sample is too small to gauge the true effect of the new extra point distance on the key numbers. However, kickers are missing more extra points and coaches are skipping the extra point. The days could be ending for 7 as a key number since touchdowns might be worth 6 or 8 points more often in the future.
Key numbers for NFL totals
There are key numbers for NFL totals but they're a bit more widespread than key numbers for point spreads. The Wizard of Odds research shows that final score totals land on a variety of numbers.
Some key numbers to keep an eye on for totals betting are 43, 44, 41, and 37. Of the 3,220 games recorded, the total landed on each of these key numbers at least 120 times (37) but no more than 126 times (43), respectively.
The next level of key numbers for NFL totals are 51, 47, 40, and 33. During the same period the total landed exactly on these numbers between 119 times (51) and 102 times (33), respectively.
While there are key numbers for NFL totals, the final score isn't contained to just two key numbers.
Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.
The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren't created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.
The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.
The worse of the teams playing in the game is called the underdog. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. The underdog in a game is listed as being plus (+) the point spread.
Let's use NFL Week 15's Steelers versus Bengals game as an example.
Using this example, the Steelers opened as 12.5 point favorites over the Bengals at most sportsbooks. The Steelers need to win by 13 or more points to cover the spread.
Likewise, the Bengals opened as 12.5-point underdogs. That means the Bengals would need to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 13 points or more. If the line is Steelers -13 and they win by exactly 13 points, the betting result is a 'push' and bettors for both sides would get their wagers refunded.
ALSO READ: NFL Power Rankings for Week 15
Point spread betting odds
Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds, but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators' house edge. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).
The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or 'vig' for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the 'juice' by some sports bettors.
Point spread FAQs
What does ‘pick em' or ‘pick' mean in NFL betting?
A 'pick em' (sometimes seen as 'pick') is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you're essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.
What does -7 and +7 mean in NFL betting?
A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a 'push' and the bet is refunded.
A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.
What does -3 and +3 mean in NFL betting?
A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.
A good point spread should attract bettors on both sides of a game. While sportsbooks don't necessarily want equal money on both sides, they don't want the money entirely on one side for every football game. This puts the book at risk of major losses.
Sportsbook operators know the key numbers and use them to their advantage. You'll often the line on a football game stay at 3 or 7 for longer than other point spreads. Sportsbooks will add vigorish (vig) as much as possible before moving instead of moving off the number.
Casino lac leamy buffet restaurant. During football games, you might see the point spread remain at 3 or 7 but the vig moves from -100 to -120 then to -130 before moving to either 2.5 or 3.5. The extra vig gives the sportsbook a little more of an edge in case the margin of victory lands in the key number.
If bettors place wagers with a higher vig, the casino won't lose as much if the final score lands on the key number. Understanding the key numbers could be the difference between placing a winning or losing wager.
What are the key numbers?
The most common margin of victory at the end of both college and pro football games is 3 points. According to Wizard of Odds, the probability that an NFL game finished with a 3 point margin is around 14.5%.
The next closest margin of victory is 7 points. Games from 2006 through Week 1 of the 2018 season finished with a 7 point margin 9.2% of the time. This large sample size covers a total of 3,220 games.
During this sample, nearly 1 in every 4 games finished with a margin of victory of 3 or 7 points. The actual number of games to end with a margin of victory of exactly 3 or 7 points was 23.7%. That's a lot of games ending on those key numbers, and that's why they are so important when wagering on football.
For a better comparison here's the probabilty for every margin of victory from 0 points to 21 points in NFL games since 2006 from Wizard of Odds.
0 = 0.2%
1 = 3.7%
2 = 3.8%
3 = 14.5%
4 = 5.2%
5 = 3.4%
6 = 6.2%
7 = 9.2%
8 = 3.6%
9 = 1.7%
10 = 5.6%
11 = 2.5%
12 = 1.5%
13 = 2.9%
14 = 4.8%
15 = 1.5%
16 = 2.1%
17 = 3.1%
18 = 2.3%
19 = 1.1%
20 = 2.4%
21 = 3.2%
22 and higher = 15.7%
Spread Odds Nfl
Understanding why these are key numbers isn't difficult but it's important. Since more football scores are worth 3 points or 7 points (6 points for a touchdown plus 1 for an extra point) it's easy to see why the margin of victory falls at each of these numbers.
The probability for the margin of victory in college football is similar but slightly different.
Keep an eye on the hook
A 'hook' is a slang term for a half-point. When looking at the key numbers, the hook is a half-point away from the 3- and 7-point margin of victory.
The main hook to keep an eye is around the 3-point line. These point spreads are 2.5 and 3.5. The second hook to look for is around the key number of 7. These point spreads are 6.5 and 7.5.
Since nearly 25% of games end with a margin of victory of 3 or 7, finding a point spread just off that number could be the difference between placing a winning bet with the hook or getting a push with the flat number.
For help with problem gambling, call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369). Nylottery.ny.gov sign up for latest promotions Sign up for our newsletter to receive exclusive deals that will make your stay at Saratoga Casino Hotel even more enjoyable! The Saratoga Casino is NY's first pari-mutuel casino. These gaming centers are colloquially known as ‘racinos,' because they are attached to horse racetracks, and have been popular destinations for video-terminal and casino enthusiasts for over a decade. Saratoga Casino, Saratoga Springs, NY. For exciting gaming, heart pumping racing, great food that you crave, or fantastic live entertainment - Saratoga Casino Hotel is the place to play!. Saratoga Casino Hotel is The Place to Play! With over 1,700 slots, thrilling live harness racing, electronic table games, live simulcast coverage, many delicious dining options, three full-service bars and Vapor, fun is a sure bet! The Place to Play and Win! Fun is a sure bet with over 1,700 slots! Saratoga Casino Hotel, Saratoga Springs: Hours, Address, Saratoga Casino Hotel Reviews: 3.5/5. Racino casino saratoga ny.
Shopping around different sportsbooks comes in handy when looking for an extra half-point on a game. If a bettor can't find a preferred half point spread, they may choose to buy points. Depending on the sportsbook a half point will add another 10% to the vig. For example, buying a half point from 3 to 2.5 or 3.5 will change the odds from -110 to -120.
A winning wager on a 3-point spread at -110 would pay $100 for every $110 wagered. Buying a half point would mean that the bettor will have to wager $120 to win that same $100. It's not much on a single wager but it adds up over time.
Key numbers in the future
NFL rules change every season. One relatively new rule that is already starting to affect the key numbers is the extra-point distance. Kicking and extra points used to take place with the ball starting at the two yard line. This was almost a guaranteed point for NFL teams.
Since 2015, NFL extra points begin at the 15 yard line. The pseudo 33-yard field goals are no longer thought of as a guarantee. This rule is already changing the game. In the past couple of years, more coaches are going for two-point conversions instead of attempting an extra point.
This three year sample is too small to gauge the true effect of the new extra point distance on the key numbers. However, kickers are missing more extra points and coaches are skipping the extra point. The days could be ending for 7 as a key number since touchdowns might be worth 6 or 8 points more often in the future.
Key numbers for NFL totals
There are key numbers for NFL totals but they're a bit more widespread than key numbers for point spreads. The Wizard of Odds research shows that final score totals land on a variety of numbers.
Some key numbers to keep an eye on for totals betting are 43, 44, 41, and 37. Of the 3,220 games recorded, the total landed on each of these key numbers at least 120 times (37) but no more than 126 times (43), respectively.
The next level of key numbers for NFL totals are 51, 47, 40, and 33. During the same period the total landed exactly on these numbers between 119 times (51) and 102 times (33), respectively.
While there are key numbers for NFL totals, the final score isn't contained to just two key numbers.
Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.
The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren't created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.
The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.
The worse of the teams playing in the game is called the underdog. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. The underdog in a game is listed as being plus (+) the point spread.
Let's use NFL Week 15's Steelers versus Bengals game as an example.
Using this example, the Steelers opened as 12.5 point favorites over the Bengals at most sportsbooks. The Steelers need to win by 13 or more points to cover the spread.
Likewise, the Bengals opened as 12.5-point underdogs. That means the Bengals would need to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 13 points or more. If the line is Steelers -13 and they win by exactly 13 points, the betting result is a 'push' and bettors for both sides would get their wagers refunded.
ALSO READ: NFL Power Rankings for Week 15
Point spread betting odds
Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds, but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators' house edge. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).
The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or 'vig' for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the 'juice' by some sports bettors.
Point spread FAQs
What does ‘pick em' or ‘pick' mean in NFL betting?
A 'pick em' (sometimes seen as 'pick') is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you're essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.
What does -7 and +7 mean in NFL betting?
A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a 'push' and the bet is refunded.
A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.
What does -3 and +3 mean in NFL betting?
A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.
A spread of +3 means the team listed as the underdog must win the game or lose by fewer than three points to cash the bet. A three-point loss would be graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet would be refunded.
Why are point spreads in the NFL so much lower than in college?
In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in point differential per game at +13.7 points; the Miami Dolphins ranked last in the NFL in point differential per game at -11.7. Even Kansas City– known for their explosive offense– had an average point differential in 2019 of just 9.7 points. The net point differential in the NFL is -14.1, or -0.9 points per game. Basically, the talent differential in the NFL is so minute that even mismatched teams often draw games within a score of each other.
Gambling Spread Nfl Odds
NFL spreads are most commonly between one point and four, with six being a heavy favorite and extremes coming out around 15-20 point favors. (For those wondering, the 1941 Chicago Bears hold the NFL record of point differential at +15.7 points per game. Conversely, Ohio State had a +33.1 average point differential in 2019.)
Point spread and odds movement
Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin. Vb slot machine. If all things are equal over time this will maximize how much money the sportsbook operator can make.
In an effort to have equal money on both sides of a wager, the sportsbook operator will move the point spread to attract money on the side that customers aren't betting on. The odds for a point spread might change before the actual point spread. There are certain point spread numbers, like 3 and 7 in football, the sportsbook operators would like to avoid moving away from since the final score margin falls on these two numbers most often.
For example, if a lot more money is wagered on the New England Patriots -3, the vig may shift from -112 to -115 and -120 before the line moves to -3.5.
Run and puck lines
Football and basketball games are mostly bet using a point spread. The less popular major sports, baseball and hockey, are mostly bet using a moneyline. In an effort to make baseball and hockey more appealing to point spread bettors, the sportsbook operators offer run and puck lines, respectively.
These alternative lines give point spread bettors a chance to wager on other sports using a more familiar method of betting. Since points (runs and goals) aren't as easy to come by in baseball and hockey, the odds with the lines may have a wider spread than a football or basketball game.
